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الإثنين , أبريل 22 2019
الرئيسية / أخبار / تحليل إخباري / كيف ستؤثر نتائج الانتخابات النصفية الأمريكية على القضايا الإسلامية والعربية؟

كيف ستؤثر نتائج الانتخابات النصفية الأمريكية على القضايا الإسلامية والعربية؟

سيطر الديمقراطيون على مجلس النواب واستأثر الجمهوريون بالشيوخ – رويترز

سيطر الديمقراطيون على مجلس النواب واستأثر الجمهوريون بالشيوخ – رويترز

 

مثّلت لحظة اعتلاء الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترمب مقاليد الحكم بالولايات المتحدة الأميركية (مايو 2016) نقطة فارقة في تاريخ البلد صاحب النفوذ الأقوى عالميا على الصعيد السياسي والاقتصادي؛ إذ شكّل ذلك الصعود الترمبي اهتزازا في بنية الدولة، فبالرغم من صعوده تحت راية الجمهوريين إلا أنه يمثل خليطا سياسيا واقتصاديا متضاربا، جعل منه واحدا من أكثر رؤساء أميركا إثارة للجدل والخلاف.

ومن أبرز الخلافات التي عادت بقوة للسطح السياسي الأميركي مع صعود ترمب، ذلك الصراع اللدود بين الخصمين التاريخيين بالساحة السياسية الأميركية، الديموقراطيين والجمهوريين، إذ بدا واضحا حاجة الأميركيين لمنح الديموقراطيين أحد طرفي الميزان فرصة للحفاظ على بلادهم من اندفاعات الرئيس الجمهوري الذي يثير الأزمات حتى بتغريداته على تويتر.

وبالفعل، أسفرت نتائج الانتخابات النصفية في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، التي أجريت في 7 نوفمبر 2018، عن سيطرة للحزب الديمقراطي في مجلس النواب، واستمرار سيطرة الجمهوريين على مجلس الشيوخ، في حين تقاسم الحزبان نتائج انتخابات حكام الولايات.

تستعرض وعي للبحث والتنمية عبر هذا العرض أبرز مآلات هذه الانتخابات لا سيما على الساحة العربية المشتعلة، ومنابع أهميتها في ظل التغيرات الكبرى الجارية بالمنطقة العربية، وتفسر لماذا حظيت تلك الانتخابات النصفية الأميركية بمتابعة إعلامية وبحثية عربية كبيرة.

خصوصية النظام السياسي الأميركي

بداية، يتوجب علينا أن نتعرض سريعا لهيكلية النظام السياسي الأميركي، من حيث سلطاته وتوزيع صلاحياته، إذ تُصنف الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية على أنها دولة جمهورية اتحادية فدرالية تعتمد النظام الرئاسي. ويُقسم دستور البلاد لسنة 1789 الحكومة الفيدرالية إلى ثلاثة فروع (سلطات) للحؤول دون طغيان سلطة على الأخرى، وفقا لمبدأ فصل السلطات؛ أحد المبادئ الأساسية التي ترتكز عليها النظم الديمقراطية الغربية.

وعليه، يتألف النظام السياسي الفدرالي من المكونات التالية:

1) السلطة التشريعية، وتتشكل من الكونغرس بجناحيه، مجلس النواب ومجلس الشيوخ.

2) السلطة التنفيذية، وتتشكل من رئيس الجمهورية، ثم نائب الرئيس، ثم مجلس الوزراء، والذين يرأسهم الرئيس بشكل مباشر.

3) السلطة القضائية وتتألف من المحكمة العليا، والمحاكم الفيدرالية الأخرى.

رئيس الجمهورية هو القائد الأعلى للقوات المسلحة، وهو المسؤول عن تنفيذ القوانين التي أقرها الكونغرس. ولذلك، يعيّن الرئيس رؤساء الوكالات الاتحادية، بما في ذلك مجلس الوزراء.. وفي مقابل صلاحيات الرئيس المهمة، فإن ثمة صلاحيات أساسية مناطة بالكونغرس بمجلسيه (الشعب والشيوخ)، وأخرى خاصة لكل مجلس دون الآخر.

مجلس النواب أكثر التصاقا بهموم الشعب اليومية، ويمثل عضو هذا المجلس مقاطعة صغيرة جغرافيا، ويكون عدد سكانها حوالي الخمسمائة ألف شخص، بينما في مجلس الشيوخ هناك عضوان فقط يمثلان كل ولاية بكاملها، أي أن تمثيل مجلس النواب هو للمواطنين، بينما تمثيل مجلس الشيوخ هو للولايات.

ويمنح الدستور الأميركي سلطات حصرية لمجلس النواب، مثل إقرار الميزانية، وإصدار مشاريع القوانين، وتوجيه الاتهامات من أجل نزع الثقة عن رئيس الدولة أو قضاة المحكمة العليا، واختيار رئيس للبلاد إذا لم ينل أي مرشح الأكثرية المطلوبة من الهيئة الناخبة، والحق في بدء إجراءات العزل.

أما مجلس الشيوخ الذي يتكون من ممثلين اثنين لكل ولاية (بإجمالي مائة عضو للولايات الخمسين)، فيعتبر أكثر تأثيرا في القرار السياسي؛ إذ يلعب دورًا هامًا في إقرار التشريعات وتعميمها، ويمارس الرقابة العامة على الإدارات الحكومية، كما يوجه بشكل كبير أجندة عمل المجلسين.

ويكلَّف مجلس الشيوخ أيضا بإقرار المعاهدات والاتفاقيات الدولية قبل توقيع الرئيس عليها، والتصديق على تعيين كبار الموظفين، وقضاة المحكمة العليا، وتعيين السفراء والمسؤولين العسكريين، ومحاكمة الرئيس وخلعه بعد نزع الثقة عنه.

كيف يكبح الكونغرس جماح الرئيس؟

يمثل الكونغرس حجر عثرة أمام الرئيس لفرض أجندته في جميع قراراته وتحركاته، إذ إن نجاح أحد قطبي السياسة الأميركية (الجمهوريين أو الديموقراطيين) في اقتناص أغلبية الكونغرس يسمح للفائز بعرقلة تقدم الآخر وصبغ المجتمع الأميركي بهويته وأفكاره.

تاريخيا، كبح الكونغرس جماح الرئيس في كثير من الملفات. ففي السبعينيات، تحركت أغلبية ديمقراطية كبيرة لكبح جماح ما يسمى بالرئاسة الإمبريالية التي دعا إليها الرئيس ريتشارد نيكسون، وأصدر الكونغرس قرار سلطات الحرب، الذي سعى للحد من الظروف التي يمكن أن يستخدم فيها الرئيس القوة العسكرية دون موافقة الكونغرس.

الانتخابات النصفية الأخيرة وأهميتها

عضوية الكونغرس تختلف باختلاف مجلسيه، بواقع ست سنوات لعضو الشيوخ مقابل سنتين فقط لعضو مجلس النواب، وتجرى الانتخابات النصفية بالولايات المتحدة في منتصف كل ولاية رئاسية – التي تدوم أربع سنوات – ويقوم الناخبون من خلالها بتجديد جزء من أعضاء الكونغرس – ثلث المقاعد في مجلس الشيوخ ونصف المقاعد في مجلس النواب – وحكام بعض الولايات ومسؤولين محليين.. وتكمن أهميتها في كونها بمثابة استفتاء على سياسة الرئيس.

ومثلت نتائج الانتخابات الأخيرة مفاجأة متوقعة، إذ انتزع الديمقراطيون الأغلبية في مجلس النواب ما يعني انتهاء “السيادة المطلقة” للرئيس دونالد ترامب، حيث تقدم الحزب الديمقراطي بـ 35 مقعدًا في حين كان عليه الفوز بـ 23 مقعدًا فقط لضمان الأغلبية بمجلس النواب.

وفيما احتفظ الجمهوريون بسيطرتهم على مجلس الشيوخ، بدا واضحًا أن ترمب سيواجه مقاومة كبيرة من مجلس النواب بعد سيطرة الديمقراطيين.

نتائج وآثار

انعكست نتائج تلك الانتخابات على السياسة الأميركية داخليا وخارجيا، وبرزت نتائجها واضحة في الملفات المتعلقة بقضايا الشرق الأوسط والمسلمين في أميركا، ولا تزال تبعاتها في ذروتها وقت كتابة تلك السطور فيما يتعلق بحرب اليمن ودعم ترمب لولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان في قضية قتل الصحفي السعودي جمال خاشقجي.

المسلمون في الداخل الأميركي

وعلى الصعيد الداخلي، شهدت الانتخابات النصفية وصول أول مسلمتين لمجلس النواب هما رشيدة طليب في ولاية ميتشيجن وإلهان عمر في مينيسوتا. فرشيدة أمريكية من أصل فلسطيني، وهي ديموقراطية اشتراكية، وفازت عن المقاطعة 17 بولاية ميتشيجن.. أما إلهان عمر الأمريكية من أصل صومالي فتعد أول لاجئة، وأول محجبة تنجح في الوصول إلى مجلس النواب الأميركي.

وإضافة إلى إلهان ورشيدة فإن عدد المسلمين الذين تم انتخابهم وصل 57 شخصا سواء على المستوى المحلي أو الولايات أو المستوى الوطني، حسب تقرير مجلس العلاقات الإسلامية الأمريكية (كير).

وشهدت الانتخابات مشاركة عالية من المسلمين الأميركيين، فبحسب استطلاع رأي قام به مجلس العلاقات الإسلامية الأميركية (كير) على عينة من المسلمين الأمريكيين، فقد بلغت نسبة المشاركين في التصويت 95% من المسلمين المسجلين، حيث صوّت 78% منهم لصالح الديموقراطيين و17% لصالح الجمهوريين.

آثار على الملف المصري

أما على الصعيد الخارجي، فمن النتائج المهمة فيما يتعلق بالملف المصري، فوز توم مليونيسكي عن الدائرة 7 في ولاية نيوجيرسي، وهو دبلوماسي أميركي كان يعمل مساعداً لوزير الخارجية للديموقراطية وحقوق الإنسان، والذي سبق أن أدلى بشهادته أمام الكونغرس في نوفمبر 2015 حول انتهاكات حقوق الانسان في مصر، حيث قدم تقييما قاسيا عن الأوضاع القائمة في مصر من قتل خارج إطار القانون ومنع حرية التعبير وطالب بالإفراج عن المعتقلين السياسيين في سجون مصر.

وكذلك أيضا خسر النائب الجمهوري دانا رورابيكر لمقعده عن ولاية كاليفورنيا، وهو أحد أكبر الداعمين للرئيس المصري عبد الفتاح السيسي، وسبق أن وصفه بأنه «مدافع عن القيم التي نؤمن بها في أميركا»، وفي 2014 قام بتأسيس مجموعة «أصدقاء مصر» في مجلس النواب الأميركي، بهدف تدعيم العلاقات بين الولايات المتحدة ومصر تحت قيادة السيسي. والتقى بالسيسي عدة مرات، من بينها زيارته إلى القاهرة في فبراير 2017 لتعزيز العلاقات بين البلدين عقب تنصيب ترامب.

العلاقات الأميركية السعودية

يعد هذا الملف هو الأكثر وضوحا لنتائج تلك الانتخابات حتى الآن على الساحة العربية، إذ جاءت نتائجه ليس فقط على مستوى مجلس الشعب، وإنما ارتدت أيضا على مجلس الشيوخ الذي أقر في ديسمبر كانون الأول 2018، مشروع قانون يحمِّل ولي العهد السعودي، محمد بن سلمان، مسؤولية قتل الصحافي السعودي جمال خاشقجي، وذلك في تصويت جاءت نتائجه مغايرة لإرادة ترمب الداعم بشدة لمحمد بن سلمان في تلك القضية.

وقدَّم رئيس لجنة العلاقات الخارجية في مجلس الشيوخ، السيناتور بوب كوركر، مشروع قرار لمجلس الشيوخ الأميركي، يحمّل ولي العهد السعودي مسؤولية قتل خاشقجي. وذكر كوركر أن مشروع القانون -الذي أسهم فيه 8 جمهوريين آخرين- يشدد على محاسبة المتورطين في جريمة تصفية خاشقجي بقنصلية بلاده في إسطنبول بداية أكتوبر تشرين الأول 2018.

الحرب اليمنية

وتباعا للنقطة السابقة، أقر مجلس الشيوخ الأميركي أيضاً مشروع قانون يدعو لإنهاء المشاركة العسكرية الأميركية في حملة التحالف بقيادة السعودية في اليمن، في تحدٍّ كبير لترمب الراغب في استكمال التعاون العسكري مع النظام السعودي تحت أي ظرف.

وفي الموضوع ذاته، وافق مجلس الشيوخ بتاريخ 12 ديسمبر كانون الأول 2018 على إجراء تصويت نهائي على مشروع قانون يمنع واشنطن من الاستمرار في تقديم دعم عسكري للتحالف السعودي-الإماراتي باليمن.

ووافق مجلس الشيوخ بأكثرية 60 صوتاً -بينهم 11 جمهورياً- مقابل 39 على الانتقال إلى مرحلة التصويت النهائي على مشروع قانون يمنع إدارة ترامب من تقديم دعم عسكري للرياض في حرب اليمن.

وبحسب مراقبين، فإن هذه الخطوة تعد بمثابة رسالة سياسية قوية إلى الرياض، وتوبيخ للبيت الأبيض الذي وصل به التحيز لولي العهد السعودي إلى حد رفض ترمب لتقييم وكالة الاستخبارات الأميركية (سي آي إيه)، الذي خلص إلى أن ابن سلمان متورط في جريمة قتل خاشقجي.

وفي النهاية، تبقى السياسة الخارجية الأميركية متأثرة بثقل ووزن لوبيات مهمة على رأسها اللوبي الصهيوني ولوبي شركات الأسلحة.. ومن المؤكد أن الرئيس الأمريكي بات الآن في وضع لا يحسد عليه، إذ سيواجه مقاومة في مجلس النواب من قِبل الديمقراطيين.. لكن ترمب -كعادته- فاجأ الجميع واحتفل بنتائج هذه الانتخابات النصفية واعتبرها “نجاحا عظيما”.

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